Business Plans for Newcomers – Part 1

I cannot tell you how many times, I have heard of newcomers turned down for loans simply because they could not produce a business plan.

In our lending systems, as covered in a past blog, it is customary to ask for a business plan. In many cases, lenders will not even look at your business idea without it.
So what is an immigrant, with poor English skills to do? Many will pay consultants to prepare plans for them.
Sometimes the immigrant will just stop the application process right there. Others will attend month long classes where they will be guided through the business plan process.

While both of these are good in principal, consultants can be expensive. Classes that drag on for months and months, are not only time wasters, but not effective at teaching what a business plan should be.

A business plan should be a guide-NOT a ROADMAP, but a guide, that gives general direction, provides some estimate of costs, and demonstrates an understanding of the market and the steps you need to get where you want to go with your business.

Many, expect business plans to be “gospel truth”, but they are not. There are those in the business world who will tell you never to plan or that they are a waste of time. I prefer a more democratic approach and believe that a general document should be prepared, but that document should never be taken as the Road Map for a new business.

For newcomers, understanding what to put in a plan, how to obtain market research, estimates of business costs and mission and vision statements, can be beyond not only their language, but also their cultural skills. Remember, Business Plans are largely a North American invention. To do them properly requires insight into Business Culture.

So what is an immigrant to do? My advice is to find a plan/template/program you are comfortable with and use that to develop a basic business plan. More important are items like personal credit and financial holdings. Also, getting a mentor in the industry would be a great asset, for immigrants or those new to an industry. In the next blog we will discuss finding a Mentor.

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Demographics for Small Business: market segmentation and counting customers

The last couple of entries have focused on stories of entrepreneurs who have either not cared about customers or who believed that the entire world was a prospective client base.

While these strategies may work for some entrepreneurs, generally speaking, we need to have some understanding of the size of the market and what we can expect to sell. This understanding increases dramatically if you are a “product” based business, where you make or manufacture a product. Making too much can result in excess inventory and wasted operating funds, making too little and you forego potential profit.

I’ve created a 5 step process to help you segment your market and more accurately predict potential sales:
Go through this exercise – even in your head, and I guarantee you will have a better understanding of your potential customers and will be better able to quantify your market research to an investor, funder or partner.

1. Who will buy your product and why?

Most entrepreneurs create a product to fill a need or to improve. Who will buy your product and why they will buy is the first step in calculating your customer base.

2. How many of these individuals/group/needs exist?

For most people this is the hardest part of market research. Calculating the number of people in the “market” can be a daunting task. However it need not be that bad. If you determine that your product is aimed at young professionals who live with their parents, you would first need to consult the Census in your country to determine the number of professionals, then most censuses narrow these by age, so you can further segment professionals say in the 24-34 range.

3. Narrow, narrow, narrow that customer base

One of the core mistakes in research is that many people want as large a customer base as possible. This is a mistake. While some lenders will let this pass, to the trained business person, the more narrow a target market, the more I know that the individual has thought about his product and who will buy it. The trick here, is to tie the narrowed slice of the target group back to question 1 – who will use your product and why?
So in our example above, we decided that young professionals who live at home with their parents are your target market. You know that not all young professionals still live at home. However you saw a recent stat in a newspaper that said about 20% of these individuals lived at home until the age of 34. So if we determined that in our City, there are 200,000 young professionals, and we estimate that 20% of them live at home, then our market segment would be 40,000. (200K*20%)

4. Market penetration rates: The world is not your oyster.

The next biggest mistake people make is that they assume either naively or optimistically that they will sell to the entire market. Either this, or they assume a far too low market penetration rate. A general rule, the smaller and better defined your market, the larger your market penetration rate can be. The larger your prospective market size, the smaller your number.

Let’s clarify with an example.

So if I was going to sell business plans, and I know there are over 3,000,000 global searches a month in Google for business plans, I could say that I could sell to half of the market (50%) and I would have generous predictions indeed. Trust me, if I was selling 1,000,000 business plans a month I would not be here blogging!

Rather, I know that the 3,000,000 can represent less than the total market. Why? Because many individuals do a search more than once. Particularly for something like a business plan. Also, they may search on more than one device. Finally, this represents global searches and my market is the English speaking world of do-it yourselfers or those for whom English is not a first language.

So if I were to limit my search to Canada, there are over 12,000 searches in Canada. Assuming that half of these are repeat queries, and then taking the percentage of the general population that are do-it yourselfers, (perhaps in the 5-10% range) might provide me with a realistic size of the market that I am targeting.

(12,000*50% for repeat queries) = 6000*10% DIY market= 600 = the number of business plan writers that are DIYers

My target capture rate of 35% = 210 Plans per month – my sales at maturity.

Now compare this number with saying that I plan to capture 0.1% of the global business plan market – that would be 30,000 plans per month – still much to high, particularly since many of those searches are in a language other than English. Numbers below 1% make no sense to anyone, so segment, segment, segment I say.

5. What will your sales be in year one?

The third and final biggest mistake that people make, is that they assume they will sell their predicted sales at maturity in year 1. Remember, that your size of the market is once your sales reach maturity. For the majority of businesses, this can be a minimum of 3-5 years. How quickly you reach your sales will include how quickly the industry is growing, the number of competitors and the quality of your product. Anyone of these can change your sales forecast.

For myself, I know that I will most likely achieve 15-25% of sales at maturity in year 1 and then predict that sales will increase by 20-35% every year thereafter.

So, to all the prospective entrepreneurs out there, good luck and start selling!

The Customer is always right….Except when he isn’t…

As part of my continuing series on markets and customers, I would like to tell you about another entrepreneur who was determined to change his customer. Unlike Bob from the last blog who was content to live with his books, this entrepreneur, Luis, has been fighting to convince customers that he was right and they needed to change since the day he opened his doors.

Luis was a Portuguese immigrant to Canada in 1980. Luis was a bright, energetic and enthusiastic young man eager to make a life for himself and his family. He came over to Canada as a pastry chef. His family had been bakers for generations in Portugal and despite his rather Neadrathal like appearance, Luis was rather artistic when it came to decorating cakes.

Luis at a Market in the winter
Luis prefers to sell outside…and grab (sometimes literally) unsuspecting customers as they walk by.

He started off living in Leamington, Canada, working for a baker there who sponsored him. Within a few months, knowing some contacts in London, Canada, Luis moved there. Always dissatisfied working for others, Luis changed jobs every few months, much to the chagrin of his wife and young family. Finally, in 1986/7, Luis took over a Latvian bakery and began working for himself on weekends (still doing construction during the week to supplement the family income).In 1989 the bakery was forced to re-locate due to a zoning change and Luis bought a new home and bakery in Aylmer, Ontario Canada where he has been ever since.

Luis makes what we would call today artisan bread. The bread is made with flour, salt and water-nothing more. Fashionable today, these loaves in the 1980’s resembled a cross between a flatbread and a rock. Despite this, Luis peddled his wares at area markets. He haggled with customers, yelled at them, insulted them and kept coming back for more every week. For a few years he tried retail-delivering to area health food stores and supplement stores. When one of them went broke–owing him a large amount of money, he swore off retail in favor of farmers markets and flea markets where he could sell directly to customers.

What makes Luis unique? Well for one, he has never changed his product in nearly 30 years. He has added lines, detracted products, changed recipes slightly, but the core product has never changed. His selling style resembles old world Arab market (think yelling and haggling) crossed with a pushy car sales man. People either love him or hate him. He has adapted his “pitch” to go with the times. In the 1980’s-1990’s the pitch was “diet bread” no fat, sugar, milk or oil…..the magic fix pill that would make you lose weight. In the late 1990’s to 2000’s healthy bread-with no fats or oils, that would let you take charge of your health. From the late 2000’s onward he has been peddling artisan breads with no additives or preservatives that supports the small business owner.

Selling outside in the Summer time
Luis used to use cardboard boxes to sell his bread–old banana boxes. These days he uses wicker baskets because banana boxes are treated with chemicals and health regulations actually prevent their re-use in our local area.

Over time has his product changed? Not really. Instead he uses language of the times to “re-invent” himself and keep his product relevant. He is still in business, fighting with customers who disagree with him, pushing his product onto unsuspecting passer-bys. Is he happy? Yes, 99% of the time he loves what he does. He is eccentric and his work environment permits him to be eccentric.

Luis, fights with his customers to make them understand why his product is relevant. Everyweek he fights. For some this would be exhausting, but for Luis, this weekly fight is what motivates him, what drives him. At heart, he loves people (“I am a lover, not a fighter” as he would say). He is known to be yelled at to keep him quiet. However, despite all of this, he loves what he does. He is passionate about bread and never hesitates to educate customers about his product, about bread, about why you should be passionate about it. He does not let the customer dictate what product he should sell, rather he fights with the customer, changes his sales pitch and educates, until the customer exhaustedly agrees to buy a loaf just to shut him up. The funny thing is, most customers come back a second time, a third…etc. He knows he just has to get them to take one loaf. A few have put up with him for nearly 30 years, others tire of his ways, and only come back occasionally. Does Luis care? No. He knows the world is full of customers, they just have to be convinced and he will go on “convincing” till the day he stops baking.

As an aside, there is much more I could tell you about Luis–enough to fill an entire book–and that book would be called ” A Baker’s Daughter” –yes he is my dad and probably the reason I am a passionate entrepreneur today.

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